The highly anticipated return of NHL players to Olympic hockey has reignited global excitement for the sport. With the 2026 Milan Cortina Winter Games underway, analysts are weighing the gold medal prospects of powerhouse teams like Canada and the United States, alongside dark horse contenders.
Star-Studded Competition
Canada enters the tournament as the clear favorite, boasting elite talents like Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Sidney Crosby. The team's dominance in recent international events—including back-to-back Olympic golds in 2010 and 2014—positions them as the squad to beat. However, Team USA presents a formidable challenge with a roster featuring Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, and Matthew Tkachuk.
"An Olympic hockey tournament could go in any number of directions," notes analyst Jon Palmieri. "But Canada and the U.S. have separated themselves as the frontrunners."
Opta Supercomputer Rankings
According to Opta's predictive model:
- Canada holds the highest probability (37%) of securing gold
- USA follows closely with a 29% chance
- Switzerland surprises as the third-ranked contender at 12%
Key Factors
While Canada's offensive firepower is unmatched, questions linger about their goaltending. Jordan Binnington's .864 NHL save percentage this season raises concerns, though Logan Thompson's strong performance with Washington (.912 SV%) offers an alternative.
The Americans, meanwhile, seek their first best-on-best victory over Canada since 1996. Their deep roster and improved defensive corps make them legitimate threats to break Canada's four-tournament international winning streak.
Group play began Wednesday, with medal rounds concluding February 22. Hockey fans worldwide await what promises to be the most competitive Olympic tournament in recent memory.
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