Arsenal’s Title Charge: Can City or Liverpool Close the Gap?*

Arsenal leads the Premier League by four points, but can Manchester City or Liverpool mount a comeback? Analysts predict Arsenal may only need high 80s in points to secure the title.

By Chris Posiano

November 1, 2025 at 1:24 AM

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Arsenal’s dominant run in the Premier League has them four points clear at the top, leaving rivals Manchester City and Liverpool in a race to keep up. With the Gunners maintaining an impressive undefeated streak and a nearly impenetrable defense, the question remains—how many points will it take to secure the title, and can their challengers realistically catch them?

According to Sky Sports analyst Gary Neville, Arsenal’s consistency—not necessarily dominance—will be enough. "High 80s will win the title—they can do that," Neville said, suggesting Arsenal may not need to reach 90+ points like past champions. The Opta supercomputer agrees, giving Arsenal a 66% chance of lifting the trophy.

Arsenal’s current form is staggering: eight consecutive wins across all competitions, six straight clean sheets, and just two goals conceded since the September international break. Their defense could even break Chelsea’s 2004-05 record for fewest goals allowed (15). If they maintain this pace, they’re projected to concede just 13 goals all season.

Meanwhile, Liverpool and City have already lost seven combined games—more than half their losses from last season—just nine matches in. The Opta predicted table suggests Arsenal could win with as few as 70 points, the lowest ever for a Premier League champion (Man United’s 1996-97 record is 75). Currently, Opta forecasts Arsenal to finish with 80 points, 11 clear of their rivals.

Could City or Liverpool mount a comeback? If they return to their best form, both could reach 85+ points, but Neville’s assessment holds—high 80s should still be enough for Arsenal. The Gunners are currently on pace for 93 points, giving them a 7-point cushion.

Arsenal’s squad depth has been key, with players like Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, and Kai Havertz missing time without derailing their campaign. However, losing midfielder Martin Zubimendi could test their resilience. Still, with replacements like Cristhian Mosquera and Mikel Merino, Mikel Arteta’s side appears well-equipped.

While football is unpredictable, Arsenal’s lead and defensive solidity make them favorites. The real question is whether City or Liverpool can find the consistency to push them to the wire.